Evaluating Urban Flooding and Economic Losses in 332 Chinese Cities under Future Climate Scenario

Abstract

With climate change and urbanization, urban flooding has intensified, causing significant socio- economic damages. Existing studies lack evaluation of flooding risks from a national scale or multi-city comparative perspective. This study aims to assess the urban flooding risks of 332 cities in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 for the years 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080, and to explore the spatial clustering effects and risk driving factors. The results show that over 80% of cities are projected to experience considerable increases in flooding volume and economic losses compared to 2020, with higher growth rates in North, Northeast and Southern China. Factors such as urban land compactness and gross domestic product have important impacts on flooding risks. This study offers scientific references for formulating targeted urban flooding management policies and planning.